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September 25, 2009

Canada's So-called Expert on Finance

canadian_coins.jpgAccording to their web site, the Department of Finance "develops policies and provides advice to the Government with the goal of creating a healthy economy for all Canadians." Assuming that's true, one would then expect that the person heading up the Department of Finance would be some economic guru, some trend-recognizing wizard with a penchant for steering the country's finances away from trouble before it hits. He would make press releases full of such economic wisdom and insight that the rest of us humble Canadians would collectively sigh with joy that we have such a financially adept Minister of Finance. So let's take a look at what Minister Jim Flaherty has to say then and now...

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In July, 2008:

Flaherty repeated the government's plan to lower taxes further, continue paying down the national debt and keep the budget balanced.
Source: CBC News, July 12, 2008

In September, 2009:

Canada will continue to run deficits until 2015, two years longer than originally forecast, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Thursday. The government previously predicted that Ottawa would record a surplus of $700 million by 2013-14. But on Thursday, Flaherty said that by 2014-15, the government would still record a "modest deficit" of $5.2 billion.
Source: CBC News, Sept 11, 2009

There is a huge difference between:
+ $700,000,000
and
-$5,200,000,000

That's like me forecasting that I will spend a few hundred dollars less than I made this month and then I go out and spend a few thousand more than I make. There is an order of magnitude difference there.

I can appreciate that a $5B deficit budget isn't the worst we've done in the past two decades, but to be so clueless and completely off base in forecasting and budgeting? I don't get it. Is the job really a lot harder than I think it is? He went from "paying down the national debt" in 2008 to "deficits until 2015" this year.

Maybe he really is incompetent, and instead of just reading and listening to the people who know what they're talking about (like HS Dent) and have made accurate predictions in the past, he's making it up as he goes. Or guessing. Or perhaps, even worse, playing some kind of political cards (although I can't see what those would be).

Of course the opposition agrees with this assessment of incompetence:

His projections are out the window again, leaving Canadians with the largest deficit in history - and no economic stimulus to show for it.
Source: CBC News, May 27, 2009

I miss Ralph Goodale. I know he was operating in better economic times so his job was easier, but he was also just a nicer, more likable guy. You may want to read what he has to say about the Conservative government's lack of financial acumen, and asks What's the plan to deal with the debt?.

Posted by Hammer at September 25, 2009 11:02 AM

If you enjoyed this article, you may want to read more in the Finance category.

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